NWS Statements

Just a heads-up to all.

The likelyhood of a Major Coastal Storm...Wether massive Nor' Easter, Tropical Storm, or Hurricane for late Sunday into early Tues is looking more likely by the hour. There are two systems that will interact with each other, (cold front and Hurricane Sandy). The initial NWS models were suggesting that the cold front would nudge Sandy out to sea, however the models are now favoring a slower cold front progression and a coastal track for Sandy into New England.. with its low pressure center making landfall somewhere between Eastern Long Island to Cape Cod... the result would be a similar situation to Irene last year, or a slim chance of a repeat of last year's Halloween Snowstorm depending on the landfall location, but current models show a mostly rain even for most of New England.

The cold front, combined with a favorable low level jet stream, would guide Gulf moisture up the coast, enhancing Sandy, resulting in a much stronger storm than previously forecast in earlier models. This would also guide Sandy or remnants thereof into New England.

The timing of this interaction will ultimately affect overall intensity, precipitation type, and the storm track. Again, the storm will have several more days before it reaches us, so nothing is written in stone at this point. .

DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR IMPACTS FROM SANDY...WHETHER IN TROPICAL OR POST TROPICAL FORM...EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE REGION COULD SEE EITHER A CLOSE PASS OR A DIRECT HIT MONDAY AND BEYOND. IMPACTS MAY INCLUDE HIGH SEAS AND STORM SURGE THAT COULD COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING...WIND
GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING HURRICANE FORCE ARE EXPECTED POSSIBLY RESULTING IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. A FINAL POSSIBLE THREAT INCLUDES HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN INTERIOR FLOODING.

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Potential for Coastal Storm Sunday – Tuesday, October 28-30 Weather Briefing
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Presented by Gary Conte – Warning Coordination Meteorologist

NOAA’s National Weather Service
New York, NY Forecast Office

Hello to all;
Sandy is Stronger than Predicted – CAT 2 (at this time)...models all increasing confidence for it to make landfall in Southern New England with a very generalized location within 50-100 miles East or West of Block Island, with an outside edge, East of the Cape and Islands.

Timing of Sandy:
Late Sunday to late Tuesday.

Rain:
Rain 3 to 9 inches+, with higher totals on the Eastern Slopes of the Litchfield Hills, Berkshires, & Green Mountains.

Wind:
Damaging winds likely... potentials for gusts to exceed hurricane strength, especially along the coast and higher elevations.

Synopsis:
Two systems come together, (cold front and Sandy) .. Sandy is stronger than forecast now and has the potential to get much bigger and much stronger than previously forecast.

Speed:
Forward speed 25 knots.

Monday:
Inland flooding and Significant tidal flooding.
Storm drains covered with leaves (widespread street flooding).!!
Widespead tree damage and power loss across impacted portions of Southern New England.

...or Sandy might miss us.

KD1LD
A. D.E.C. SKYWARN

Hurricane SANDY Forecast

  000 WTNT43 KNHC 261459 TCDAT3
HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN MASS. CONVECTION. USING A BLEND OF FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT YIELDS A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE AT LEAST SLIGHT WEAKENING. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS VERY LIKELY DUE TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES. BY 72 HOURS...THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL AT 96 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION. REGARDLESS...WHETHER SANDY IS OFFICIALLY TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL AT LANDFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON THE IMPACTS.

LATEST FIXES FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION WITH THE CENTER APPEARING TO HAVE TURNED NORTHWARD. THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/5. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND DIG AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN U.S. COAST BY 72 HOURS. THE FLOW ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

USERS ARE REMINDED TO NOT FOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE EXACT TRACK LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD...AS SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO A LARGE PART OF THE U.S. EAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1135 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

..HURRICANE SANDY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE SANDY. THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST WOULD TRACK SANDY ANYWHERE FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND TO THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA BORDER EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE SANDY WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEXT WEEK... BUT NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARATIONS FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE SANDY. AS A REMINDER...ITS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER AND TRACK OF HURRICANE SANDY AS THIS STORMWILL BE QUITE LARGE IN SIZE. HERE ARE SOME TIPS AND REFERENCES YOU CAN USE NOW BEFORE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE SANDY.

...FLOODING IMPACTS...
DEPENDING ON SANDYS TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE EXCESSIVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE TERRAIN WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ENHANCING RAINFALL RATES. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...HAVE A SAFETY KIT READY AND BE PREPARED IN THE EVENT OF A FLASH FLOOD OR MANDATORY EVACUATION. LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND BE ESPECIALLY ATTENTIVE TO ROAD CLOSURES. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

...DAMAGING WIND IMPACTS...
WHILE THE TRACK OF HURRICANE SANDY REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THE WINDFIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LARGE. AT THIS TIME...WIND GUSTS 50 MPH+ ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IF THESE WINDS DO OCCUR...DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWERLINES WOULD OCCUR. FURTHERMORE...PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR. IF YOU HAVE A GENERATOR...BE SURE TO NOT PLACE THIS EQUIPMENT NEAR OR INSIDE YOUR HOME. WATCH FOR DOWN POWERLINES AS THE LINE MAY STILL BE ACTIVE. IF VENTURING OUTDOORS...BE AWARE OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS AS CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE SUDDENLY. 

...COMMUNICATIONS...
BE SURE TO HAVE A BATTERY OPERATED...OR OTHER BACKUP SOURCE...RADIO DEVICE. KEEP YOUR CELL PHONE CHARGED AND ALERT OTHERS OF YOUR WHEREABOUTS.SAFETY SHOULD ALWAYS BE YOUR TOP PRIORITY AS YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE THE FORECAST.

Not much has changed in the forecast models other than the addition of some heavy snowfall watches in West Virginia and Kentucky, which was expected. New Jersey appears to be the central point for landfall...
As of right now, it does not look like we will see snow because she will not be able to draw in as much cold air before she get up to us and it appears that New England will be on its inflow side which will have very high winds from the South and East and we will also be spared from the worst of the heaviest rains...
The down side is that we will be getting the brunt of the high winds here in New England and... NYC, Long Island, coastal CT/MA/RI/NH/ME will all see some incredible storm surge... storm surge will be significant because it will be coinciding with the full moon high tides... and there is a real possibility that many coastal cities such as NYC, Bridgeport, New Haven, Boston, Providence, Glouster, and elsewhere along coastal New England may be inundated by a very strong storm surge...

This storm is not going to be like the typical Nor'Easters and Tropical Storms that blow away in less than a day... because of Sandy's strength and size, it will actually cause the cold front to our West to stall out . As Sandy turns West and moves inland, it will push the front backwards towards the Great Lakes.. Sandy will then combine with a low pressure area that is developing over the Great Lakes and will sit over us for several days... over those several days, it will produce a significant amount of rain and could still lead to significant flooding similar to Hurricane Irene last year, however the water will rise more slowly.

A little before 8 am, a AFR Hurricane Hunter WC-130J flew into her center and reported that Sandy is again a Hurricane and is rapidly intensifying...

Actual Report:
Sandy Vortex (10/27 11:50:30Z):
MSLP: 957
Sustained Winds: 68kts (~78.2mph)
Inbound Flight Level Wind: 91kts (~104.6mph)
957 millibars (pressure)

That pressure is extremely low... it now has the same lowest pressure recorded in the "Perfect Storm" and it has only just begun to reintensify... the lower the pressure in a storm center, the more powerful it is... this storm may not be a catagory 5, but it already has more energy than hurricane Katrina.
Hurricane Catagories are based on wind speed alone, not rain potential, size, or power... this thing is pretty friggen nasty.

Several NOAA Weather Buoys out in the Atlantic are reporting increasing seas with waves 20-30 feet.
One of them is about 100 miles from the storm center to the West, the rest are a lot further away, pretty impressive.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

Station 41010 NDBC
Location: 28.906N 78.471W
120 Nautical Miles East of Cape Canaveral and approx 100 miles West of Sandy's center.
Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2012 12:50:00 UTC

Winds: NW (320°) at 54.4 kt gusting to 66.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 27.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.04 in and rising (storm is moving away)
Air Temperature: 71.8 F
Water Temperature: 80.4 F

as you can see, the ocean is VERY warm and Sandy is feeding on that...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
522 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012


...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON AND MON EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EASTERN MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHERN VERMONT

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHERN VERMONT

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
FROM 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES SUNDAY NIGHT...2 TO 4 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES MONDAY MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8 FT SURGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS DURING MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. STORM FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS COMBINED WITH A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. LOCALIZED MAJOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY.

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
COASTLINES OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES OF LONG ISLAND...PORTIONS OF NEW YORK HARBOR...AND TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES ON SUNDAY...WITH LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING BY THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING...POSSIBLY TO RECORD LEVELS...IS LIKELY DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IN POSSIBLE INTO THE TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES CYCLE...

......HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY...
BREAKING WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT ALONG OCEAN FACING SHORELINES BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...5 TO 8 FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FACING PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...PECONIC BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASHOVERS.
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WEATHER STATEMENT

HURRICANE SANDY IS NOW APPROIMATELY 1600 MILES ACROSS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT NEARLY 450 MILES FROM ITS CENTER AND IS NOW AFFECTING THE WEATHER HERE IN NEW ENGLAND... RESULTING IN OVERCAST SKIES TODAY. TOMORROW, THIS WILL CONTINUE AS HURRICANE SANDY INTENSIFIES AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LARGER. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD... MOST LIKELY MAKING LANDFALL IN NEW JERSEY LATE MONDAY. ITS STRONG WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING... LIKELY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS OCCURRING INITIALLY IS IN LONG ISLAND...AND COASTAL AREAS OF CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND MOVING INLAND WITH STORM PROGRESSION.

WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST LINE OF NEW ENGLAND AND PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HURRICANE SANDY NEARS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BECOME MORE STEADY HEADING INTO MONDAY. BY 9 PM MONDAY EVENING, ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING SOUTHERN VERMONT AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE EXPERIENCING THE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS MUCH HIGHER AS SANDY NEARS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE WORCESTER HILLS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF HEAVY RAINS AND WIND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALSO LEAD TO COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE STORM EXPERIENCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING 4-8 FEET OR MORE ABOVE THE HIGH TIDE MARK AS SANDY/REMNANTS LINGER OVER NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HEAVIER BANDS OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 3+ INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA... HOWEVER LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3 TO 8+ INCHES ARE LIKELY...BRINGING THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HILLS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF SAID HIGHER TERRAIN NOTED ABOVE. FLOOD ISSUES COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD EXCEED 8 TO 10 INCHES+ WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

BE SMART AND BE SAFE!

Hurricane Sandy is still intensifying and is slowing down as she nears the coast of NJ. She is barely 1 MB from breaking the all-time record low pressure, set with the 1938 Hurricane. She is an incredibly powerful storm and is still on track to ram into NJ. NYC is just beginning to see water topping the sea wall at Battery Park and is expecting 11+ feet of water to take portions of the city...

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO GO TO THE COAST TO "SEE" WHAT IS GOIN ON, YOU WILL SERIOUSLY GET HURT OR EVEN KILLED.

ALL HIGHWAYS IN CT ARE CLOSED PER GOVERNOR, ALL TRAFFIC WILL BE TURNED AWAY BY THE CT STATE POLICE.

Winds are steady across the region between 20-40 MPH with reported gusts above 60 being reported... Much Worse being reported along the RI and CT Coast inland 20 miles...

Numerous reports of power lines and trees down and there is a wave of reports coming in from SE Mass and RI of numerous trees/power outages with a strong band moving WESTWARD into Eastern CT and Central MA... heads up.

This is gonna destroy a lot of peoples lives...God Bless Everyone!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
425 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CONNECTICUT...MAINE...MASSACHUSETTS...NEW HAMPSHIRE...RHODE ISLAND AND VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PLOWABLE SNOW EVENT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MID WEEK STORM... THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS MODELS ALL HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRAVELING JUST SOUTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND BRINGING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM/AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT/ SIMPLY HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND NO INDICATION OF PRECIP AT ALL. WE WILL TREND TOWARD A ECMWF/GFS/HPC SOLUTION... HOWEVER...KEEPING IN MIND ALL THE FLIP FLOPPING AND UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY TREND TOWARD IT.

ASIDE FROM THE STORM...THE WEATHER IS FAIRLY QUIET BOTH EARLY AND LATE NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY...
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
GIVEN THE NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AM STILL HESITANT TO MAKE A RUN FOR A SINGLE SOLUTION. THAT SAID...THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE STARTED TO FOCUS TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE ON A SOUTHERLY TRACK ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK FOR WINTER STORMS. AT THIS POINT...THIS SOLUTION BRINGS HEAVY SNOW...LIKELY FOCUSED MORE ON THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF NEW ENGLAND MAINLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE STILL OTHER SOLUTIONS...THE NAM MODEL HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTION APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY. WILL TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
DESPITE ALL THE DISCREPANCIES/UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...THESE TWO PERIODS HAVE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR MOVING IN ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOOKS LIKE A BITTERLY COLD AND BRISK END TO THE WEEK

The latest computer forecast models continue to “signal” a long period of unsettled weather starting late Saturday night through Wednesday.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS AND PRECIPITATION TYPES...BUT BELOW IS OUR CURRENT THINKING.

THERE IS MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEED 4 INCHES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO
ALL RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCRETION ACROSS THE LITCHFIELD HILLS...THE BERKSHIRES/WORCESTER HILLS AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE TRANSITION.

A STRONG COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT IS DEPENDENT UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM... SOMETHING THAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.

IN ADDITION
...BEACH EROSION AND A FEW EPISODES OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN MA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND....

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND INTERIOR MASSACHUSETTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 495 IN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 84 IN CONNECTICUT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
ANOTHER PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR MASSACHUSETTS... SOUTHERN VERMONT AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THERE IS CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
THERE IS STILL ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW...AT THE END OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH LATEST INFORMATION SUGGESTS RAIN IS THE MORE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
9:34 PM EST SUN DEC 23 2012

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. A BROAD SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS CHRISTMAS DAY.

IN ADDITION... SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION NORTH TO SOUTH TO A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO MIDDAY. VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE... WITH A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE...AND TRACE AMOUNTS NORTH.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...BUT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE A POTENT SYSTEM AND FEATURE HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HEAVY SNOW AND ICE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY AREAS OF RAIN/MIXED PRECIP SHOULD START TO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON THURSDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES... SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

URGENT -
WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
457 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012...

WINTER STORM HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND....
A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. MEANWHILE THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. A STORM WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY. MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND... AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WHITE...GREEN...AND BERKSHIRE MOUNTAINS. THE STORM WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY AND MOVE EAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDS INTERIOR. THE WORST OF THE WINTRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN VERMONT... AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT ICING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
443 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO MOST/ALL OF NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...

.LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEEPENING STORM WILL PASS ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE MOST SNOW EXPECTED OVER RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY/SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS/CONNECTICUT, AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS, SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES, AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 10 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... SOME AREAS COULD SEE MORE IN THE HEAVIER SQUALL LINES.
* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY. SNOW TAPERS OFF TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY.
* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH MAY MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT. POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 40 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 PM EST MON JAN 14 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CONNECTICUT...MAINE...MASSACHUSETTS...NEW
HAMPSHIRE...RHODE ISLAND AND VERMONT.

DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND... CLIPPING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THIS MAY BE ALONG/NEAR THE MASS PIKE CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME SNOW TOTAL ESTIMATES ARE VARIED MOSTLY IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE BUT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS COULD TOP 6 INCHES IN SOME PLACES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND A SNOW TO SLEET MIX SOUTH AND ALONG THE COASTLINES OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
901PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.  IN ADDITION...SNOW SQUALLS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS DEVELOPING HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
430 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THISAFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY... (ENDS MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINES...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET... FREEZING DRIZZLE
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES... UP TO 1/8 INCH OF ICH POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS 1 PM TO 4 PM...MIXES WITH SLEET BETWEEN 5 PM TO 9 PM...WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AFTER 10 PM.
* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY DRIVING AND WALKING  CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO SNOW MELT. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND EXPECTED RAINFALL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION WILL CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE...WITH SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES POSSIBLE. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY AND UNCLEAR IF ANY FLOODING WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME.

NOAA
National Weather Service
Gary Conte
NWS Meteorologist

Hi folks,
Following a brief warm up, forecast models show a strong cold front moving quickly eastward across the area Wednesday Eve/Night. There is the potential for heavy rain and strong gusty southwest winds ahead of this front Wednesday afternoon through early night, then strong gusty west winds behind the front on Thursday with a drop in temperatures.
There are increasing potentials for:
- Heavy Rain - A widespread 1-2 inch heavy rainfall area-wide might cause flooding of low lying poor drainage areas as well as fast reacting small streams. Because the subsurface layers of the ground are mainly frozen, most rainfall will result in storm runoff. Stay tuned for the issuance of a FLASH FLOOD WATCH across Portions of the Northeast US.
- There is a possibility of a 1 to 2 inch rainfall that could cause minor urban flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas.
- Please note that warming temperatures will cause significant melting of ice on local area bays, lakes, rivers, and streams; making it unsafe for recreational activities starting tonight.
- Wind speeds are forecast to increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 45 mph Wednesday afternoon and continue through Thursday. Winds could meet Advisory criteria of 31-39 mph sustained and/or gusts of 46-57 mph.
- In addition, a few thunderstorms ahead of the front could produce damaging wind gusts of at least 60 mph.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
* FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW MELT. IN ADDITION...THE GROUND IS FROZEN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

* THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT ON FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM FLOODING. WITH SOME ROAD CULVERTS CLOGGED WITH ICE...A FEW RURAL ROAD WASHOUTS ARE ALSO LIKELY. PAST HISTORY SAYS THAT EVENTS LIKE THIS ALSO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF HILLSIDE SLIPS OR MUD SLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN. BASEMENT FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

* SHORT LIVED RIVER ICE JAMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ICE IS NOT YET THICK ENOUGH FOR LONG LIVED ICE JAMS THAT WOULD CAUSE SERIOUS FLOODING. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM ICE JAMS.

* THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LARGER RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME. NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST BY THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER. HOWEVER...LATER FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

* TIMING...BEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
* WINDS...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
* TIMING...WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...ANTICIPATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREES...TREE LIMBS...AND POWER LINES. IN ADDITION...UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS MAY BECOME DAMAGED AND/OR AIRBORNE. HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS...AS WELL AS TO STRUCTURES.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
430 AM EST TUE FEB 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT...MAINE...MASSACHUSETTS...NEW HAMPSHIRE...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...RHODE ISLAND AND VERMONT..

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT INITIALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THAT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AND MOVE EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR A MODERATE OR EVEN A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...THEN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WINTER STORM WATCH...OR WARNING MAY BE ISSUED LATER IN TIME. THE IMPACT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES+ WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM PROVIDENCE RI TO NORTHERN MAINE.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL INCREASE INTENSITY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

Got this following email at about 11 AM today, been in Dr's all day and no time to post it
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michael Silva - NOAA Federal

Good morning, everybody:

The latest forecast models show the increasing potential for a coastal storm that could bring heavy precipitation and strong winds to parts of the local area starting Thursday night and continuing through Friday night before ending Saturday morning. As high pressure moves north of New England, low pressure is forecast to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast and intensify as it moves northeast toward the 40 degrees north latitude 70 degrees west longitude benchmark.

Confidence is increasing, based on the latest forecast information, that snow will develop Thursday night with minor to moderate accumulations by Friday morning of 2-4 inches. Snow will mix with or change to rain on Friday along the coastal areas around Long Island Sound, and in NJ/NYC, before changing back to snow Friday night. Significant snowfall and strong winds with near to blizzard conditions are likely Friday night with the possibility of accumulations reaching 2 feet across NE Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire.

There is still some uncertainty as to the track and intensity of the storm, but there is increasing confidence that the worst conditions will occur over Southern and Eastern portions of the area Friday night into Saturday.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding is also possible around the times of high tide Thursday night through Friday evening/ and Saturday morning along Eastern New England.

Stay tuned to your latest NWS forecasts: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/

There is the possibility that electronic presentations or webinars could begin either this afternoon or on Thursday. Additional emails will be sent if a webinar is planned.

Thanks,

Michael Silva
NWS Meteorologist NY, NY

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/erh.png


Hurricane Force Wind Warning
Blizzard Warning
Winter Storm Warning
High Wind Warning
Storm Warning
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Storm Watch
Flood Watch
Flood Warning
Coastal Flood Warning

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THIS STORM SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY SUNDAY. A GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY.

6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE/...

* A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WILL POSE SERIOUS THREATS TOWARDS LIFE AND PROPERTY.

* BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CT...RI...AND E/SE MA.
* WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES.
* FOR THOSE AREAS WITHIN THE BLIZZARD WARNING...HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IS INCLUSIVE. HIGH WINDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 60 MPH.

* STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS BY STORMS END MAY BE IN THE ALL-TIME TOP 10 FOR VARIOUS CITIES...UP TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE. BLOWING AND DRIFTING ANTICIPATED RESULTING IN DRIFTS UP TO AROUND 5 FEET...ESPCIALLY AREAS IN THE BOSTON-WORCESTER TO PORTSMOUTH NH/I-95/I-495/I-93 CORRIDOR.

* TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE INTO SATURDAY.

...MAJOR NORTHEAST BLIZZARD FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

MODELS SHOW A NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED 700 MB LOW MOVING ACROSS MICHIGAN TO WESTERN NY/LK ONTARIO STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE LOW TRACK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE OF STRIPE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LK ONTARIO ON DAY ONE. SNOW DEVELOPS WITHIN THE WAR/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE NY ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WILL BE THE PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION ZONE AS GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT WARMING TO CHANGE SNOW TO RAIN FRI AFTERNOON...AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING A NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR 850-950 MB TO CAUSE A MIX.

ON DAY 2 (FRI NIGHT/SAT)... WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC ON FRI IT WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...DRIVING A SURFACE LOW CENTER THAT WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. A POWERFUL DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DELIVER VERY HEAVY SNOWS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE MODELS HAVE NOT RESOLVED THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF MERING WAVES JUST YET. THE 12Z-18Z NAM ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL CYCLONE TRACK DISTRIBUTION AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT (BUT TRENDING CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST FROM ITS 00Z RUN). GIVEN EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR 4 RUNS IN THE ECMWF AND NCEP SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES...THE PROBABILITIES WERE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARDS THESE SOLUTIONS AND THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHOSE SFC-700 MB LOW TRACK CLUSTERED WELL WITH THE 00-12Z ECMWF/09-15Z SREF MEAN.

THE IMPLICATION IS HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVY SNOW EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN CT INTO THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA/NORTHERN NJ THAN IF THE GFS/UKMET WERE GIVEN EQUAL WEIGHTING. THE 09-15Z SREF MEAN AND 00-12Z ECMWF HAVE 65-70 KT 850 MB JETS COMING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHEAST MA AND 50 KT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST NY...FAVORING POWERFUL MOISTURE ADVECTION WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO SOUTHEAST NY. THE DEEPENING LOW PRODUCES STRONG COLD ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND...WITH PRECIP QUICKLY CHANGING BACK TO SNOW. LIKE ON DAY ONE...PART OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE DURATION OF SNOW IN NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT/RI/SOUTHEAST MA/ISLANDS...AND HOW FAR WEST THE HEAVIER QPF EXTENDS.

THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PROBABILITIES REMAINS ACROSS CT/RI INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MA TO SOUTHERN NH AND THE ME COAST WHERE A HIGH RISK FOR A FOOT OR MORE HAS BEEN INDICATED. MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE SREF AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN POTENTIAL FOR 2 FEET OF SNOW NEAR BOSTON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO CRACK THE TOP 5 OF ALL TIME HEAVIEST SNOWFALLS THERE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDER SNOW IN EASTERN MA/EASTERN CT/ADJACENT RI BASED ON DIAGNOSTICS FOR CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY SUPPORTING SLANTWISE VERTICAL MOTION.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA 1043 AM EST
SUN FEB 10 2013

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY THEN A MIX OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH A WARM FRONT MON. HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW TUE INTO WED. ANOTHER COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCHED CLOSELY. YET ANOTHER STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON SAT.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL A BIT GUSTY OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER RATHER COLD START A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPS WILL BRING READINGS TO 30-35 THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A BIT COLDER NW HIGHER TERRAIN.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR HIGHS. AS THE FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO START BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE ALL TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF CONNECTICUT...EASTERN MASS.... COASTAL/SE NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND RHODE ISLAND. ANY ICE THAT ACCUMULATES WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS /EXPECT SNOW MOSTLY ACROSS BERKSHIRES/NORTHERN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...LITCHFIELD HILLS CT...VERMONT....MAINE AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE/ WILL AMOUNT TO 1 TO 3 INCHES. ONCE PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN...EXPECT UP TO ABOUT HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW IS CLOGGING THE DRAINS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN. AT THE MOMENT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE...PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
* HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MID-WEEK
* POSSIBLE OCEAN STORM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TRENDING MODELS INDICATE IT MAY STAY OUT TO SEA
* ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK DETAILS...

MODELS/CONFIDENCE...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. MODELS OVERALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR THE NEXT COASTAL SYSTEM. THE 10/00Z GFS AND GEFS MEAN ARE ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE 10/00Z ECMWF. THE GUIDANCE DOES SEEM TO AGREE THOUGH ON A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WHICH WOULD PLACE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION SHIELD. USED A BLEND OF THE 10/00Z ECMWF AND GFS TO TREND THE EXISTING FORECAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE EVENING. ANY LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
FEW FLURRIES MAY BE FLYING AROUND ON TUESDAY AS LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DRY SLOT FOR NOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES THURSDAY...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF STREAM. GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH ITS STORM TRACK... AND IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN CT...RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. 10/00Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AN FARTHER SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR NOW UNTIL THE TRACK OF THIS STORM COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS.

FRIDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...
ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE COULD IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH GUIDANCE SOURCES DO TRACK A POTENT LOW PRESSURE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
640 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013

SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY PLEASANT WEATHER TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. A CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STORM SYSTEM FOR THE MIDWEEK.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CONNECTICUT..MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AREAS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE COAST TO A DUSTING JUST SOUTH OF I-90.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
A CLIPPER LOW TRANSITIONS INTO A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION...AIDING IN SURFACE CYCLOGENIC DEVELOPMENT. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRANSITIONS BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT SNOW /THE TIMING OF WHICH APPEARS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT...AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY SO. SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR ACROSS THE S/E PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND DURING WHICH TIME MOISTURE MAY BECOME MORE READILY AVAILABLE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR /DOWNSLOPING/ QUICKLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ADVECTED BY W/NW FLOW TO THE REAR OF THE DEEPENING LOW INTO NOVA SCOTIA.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
UNSEASONABLY COLD. BLUSTERY N/NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH /WELL-MIXED LAPSE RATES UP TO H85/. NOTHING OBSERVED IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT WOULD WARRANT WIND ADVISORIES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-20S. ANTICIPATING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO FILTER THROUGH THE REGION. PERHAPS SOME LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ADVECTED ENERGY OFF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
A BRIEF MILD RIDGING PATTERN BROUGHT ON BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MID- LVL RIDGING. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. ANTICIPATING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM. MIDWEEK... FOLLOWING THE 12.12Z AND 13.0Z ECMWF GUIDANCE...THERE IS THE PLAUSIBILITY OF SEEING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM. WITH SOME DOUBT AND UNCERTAINTY...CAN ONLY SPECULATE FOR NOW AS TO THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS. AN INTERIOR LOW CENTER TRACK WOULD NET SNOWS ACROSS THE N/W...WITH RAIN S/E.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
427 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CONNECTICUT...MAINE...MASSACHUSETTS...NEW HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT AND RHODE ISLAND.

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINAS AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO NOVA SCOTIA GRAZING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...SPREADING SNOW UP THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS THEREAFTER INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOREASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE... WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY YIELD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES...

AREAS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE WESTWARD OF I-84 IN CT... NORTH AND WEST OF WORCESTER COUNTY IN MASS...AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF CONCORD NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MOST OF INLAND MAINE . SUCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH LOW VISIBILITIES AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF WIND ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 50 MPH... WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ISSUED SATURDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A BITTER ARCTIC AIR MASS PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...
ARCTIC CHILL WITH W/NW FLOW. LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION. WITH A DEPARTING SYSTEM THAT APPEARS MORE AMPLIFIED...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE OF MEETING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE H925 FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED RUN-TO-RUN /NOW AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS/ AND LAPSE RATES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO MIX-UP TO H85. WINDS WILL RELAX AND TEMPERATURES MAY SLIGHTLY MODERATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
BOTH 15.0Z ECMWF AND GFS KEY UPON ANOTHER SWEEPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHICH REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES FOR THE SHORELINES AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAINS. BUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SNOW IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC CHILL AND BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS /POSSIBLY GUSTING TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/. WINDS RELAX INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

NEXT WEEKEND...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM...MODELS INDICATE IT WILL BE TAKING ON A DOUBLE-BARREL SET OF STORMS IN APPEARANCE...IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE... HOWEVER IT IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...SO CAN ONLY SPECULATE FOR NOW.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
544 AM EST WED FEB 20 2013

THERE IS A MODERATE POTENTIAL WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A STRENGTHENING COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST INDICATES MAINLY RAIN/MIX ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST AND MAINLY SNOW INLAND WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS EVENT THOUGH AND VARIATIONS IN TRACK AND MAGNITUDE WILL LEAD TO CHANGES IN FORECAST AMOUNTS AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE AREAS WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CONNECTICUT...MAINE...MASSACHUSETTS...NEW HAMPSHIRE...RHODE ISLAND AND VERMONT

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPETED AT THIS TIME..

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE DELMARVA REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL...AS WELL AS A BRIEF MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES...THEN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR CAPE COD/ISLANDS...PARTS OF CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...WINTER STORM WATCH...OR WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED LATER IN TIME. HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MASSACHUSETTS... NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. PARTS OF MASSACHUSETTS MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE REGION BUT WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW AS THE STORM DRAWS COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA. AMOUNTS VARY AT THIS TIME HOWEVER A GENERAL

DUE TO SOME TYPICAL MODEL FORECAST DIFFERENCES... THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WINTER STORM WATCHES MAY BE EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTHWARD. SNOW TYPE WILL BE A HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF MASSACHUSETTS...NEW HAMPSHIRE... SOUTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT...AND A LARGE PORTION OF MAINE.. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK SOME AREAS COULD EASILY EXCEED 12 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF MASSACHUSETTS EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE..FURTHER SOUTH INTO CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW...RAIN...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY CHANGING GRADUALLY TO SNOW AS THE STORM MOVES NORTHWARD. AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE PLUS PERHAPS 1-3 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW MIX FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE CT RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SPRINGFIELD METRO.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN FOR A TIME NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS...THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT THIS WILL BE A HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. UNTREATED ROADS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

MODERATE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO DAMAGING EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS FOR CAPE COD AND ADJACENT ISLANDS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 46 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ALONGTHE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COASTLINE...WITH THE HIGHEST RISKDURING THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.

MONDAY
CLEARING WEATHER WITH DAYTIME TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER STORM MIGHT BRING ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWOR MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
100 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013 .

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MASS EXPANDING SOUTH. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH MODEL FORECASTS OF CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE DETAILS OF SKY COVER GRIDS...BUT MAINTAINED THE EXPECTATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGELINE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP UP DRY. LATE MORNING TEMPS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...THIS LINES UP WELL WITH EXPECTED MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...SO EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT TIMES. LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE HANGING TOUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DRY DAY. WE MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT ALSO EXPECT TO SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LOW PRES WILL BRING MIXED PRECIP TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT * UNCERTAIN AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... 25/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID TERM REGARDING A SLOW MEANDERING CUTOFF LOW PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN IN THE ATLANTIC...A PATTERN FAVORED BY CPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS VERY NEGATIVE AO...AND MODEST NEGATIVE NAO. IT IS THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WHERE GUIDANCE HAS MOST DISAGREEMENT...PRIMARILY WITH HOW PROGRESSIVE THE UPSTREAM PATTERN AHEAD OF THE MEANDERING CUTOFF ENDS UP BEING. ECMWF STILL REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...BUT EVEN GFS AND GEFS MEAN ARE STARTING TO LEAN THAT WAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST PACKAGES...AND USE ECMWF AS BASELINE FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THIS UPDATE. IN TERMS OF THERMAL PROFILES...PARTICULARLY FOR THE WARM FROPA TUE NIGH/WED...LATEST GFS AND GEFS MEMBERS ARE NOW A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...LENDING MORE CREDENCE TOWARD THE POTENTIAL SLOW DOWN OR STALL OF THE FRONT THAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR A FEW RUNS NOW. THEREFORE...WILL ALSO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF IN THIS REGARD AS WELL. DETAILS... TUE NIGHT INTO WED... STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST IMPACT IN THE LONG TERM IS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PATTERN FAVORS A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT...WITH NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT...IN ADVANCE OF CUTOFF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. GIVEN THE LACK OF SLY SUPPORT IN THE STEERING FLOW...IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL AS IT MEETS COOLER BLOCKING HIGH PRES IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND MAY STAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS WARM FRONT FROM TUE NIGHT WELL INTO WED MORNING. THERE IS DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION APPARENT ON SOUNDINGS...WHICH SUGGESTS SOME DYNAMIC COOLING AT PRECIP ONSET...PARTICULARLY INLAND OF THE S COAST. COMBINE THIS SUPPORTIVE PWAT VALUES IN THE 0.75-1.0 INCH RANGE...AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW...PARTICULARLY N OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A FULL COLUMN BELOW 0C...AND CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. ALTHOUGH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING FOR A SNOW BURST EVEN FURTHER S...AND KEEP AREAS FURTHER N FROM GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR FOR SOME TIME. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AREAS OF THE CWA N OF ROUTE 2 ACTUALLY MAY STAY SNOW WELL INTO THE DAY WED UNTIL THE FRONT...SUPPORTED BY A SLIGHT SLY PUSH AND DIURNAL WARMING IS ABLE TO ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN. EVEN THOUGH RATIOS MAY NOT BE REALLY HIGH...THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL OF +2.0 INCHES/HOUR IN SPOTS N OF THE PIKE MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST ADVISORY LVL SNOWFALL. S OF THE PIKE...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MID LVL WARMING MAY BE ENOUGH THAT A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE...WITH SOME COOLER VALLEYS POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME FREEZING RAIN IF SFC TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING LATE. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTOR...A COMPLEX WINTERY MIX LOOKS LIKELY...WITH FAIRLY HIGH QPF AMOUNTS SUPPORTED BY LATEST GUIDANCE. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR WINDS...H92 S-SE JET ON GFS/ECMWF SHOW 50-60 KT...WHICH ALTHOUGH THERE MIXING MAY BE LIMITED...MIGHT PROMOTE THE THREAT FOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

THU THRU FRI...
DUE TO BLOCKING FLOW UPSTREAM...CUTOFF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MEANDER SLOWLY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH THE THREAT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE. THE KEY WILL BE THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEREFORE...GIVEN ANY BL MIXING...RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE FAVORED DURING THE DAY SAVE FOR HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THIS LOW DOES HAVE A FORMER CONNECTION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...ANY LIFT IS RELATIVELY LIGHT...SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN...
GIVEN THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT HERE...THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THE BULK OF DRY AND COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES TO THE NW IS ALLOWED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. USING THE ECMWF PATTERN FAVORED FOR THIS FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST THAT CLEARING/DRY WX SHOULD BEGIN TO DOMINATE BY SAT DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST. EARLY NEXT WEEK... HIGH PRES CONTINUES SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE E...ALTHOUGH LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TRIES TO GENERATE OCEAN STORM...GIVEN THE ISSUES REGARDING THE ATLANTIC FLOW PATTERN...DON/T FEEL TOO STRONGLY IN EITHER DIRECTION WITH THIS LOW...BUT THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE W WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE LOW STAYS OFFSHORE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY DRY FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.