NWS Statements

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CONNECTICUT...MAINE...MASSACHUSETTS...NEW HAMPSHIRE...RHODE ISLAND...VERMONT.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...THEN INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST. INDICATIONS THAT THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE STORM IS STILL ABOUT 3 DAYS AWAY...SO THERE IS STILL A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FURTHER NORTH TRACK AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SEAS...AT LEAST SOME BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITYOF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGHTIDE CYCLES.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
656 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...THEN INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST. HEAVY SNOW MAY IMPACT PARTS OFSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF RAIN-SNOW LINE. SNOWFALL MAY BE HEAVY AND WET POSSIBLY RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES.

STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS WHERE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SEAS...AT LEAST SOME BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST ISEXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COAST AT HIGH TIDE.

DISCUSSION:
* HEAVY WET SNOW RISK FOR PARTS OF THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT
* COASTAL FLOODING/BEACH EROSION & DANGEROUS SEAS LIKELY
* DRIER AND QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER ENOUGH SPREAD FOR A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST WED THROUGH FRI REGARDING THIS STORM. TWO MODEL CAMPS HERE WITH DOMESTIC MODELS /GFS-NAM/ FARTHER NORTH-CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH VERY HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT THE GFS HAS OVER 7 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA! THE NAM HAS JUST OVER 3 INCHES. THIS FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION IS ALSO WARMER ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MEANWHILE THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS ECMWF-UKMET-GGEM AND NOW THE SREF ARE MORE SUPPRESSED/OFFSHORE WITH HEAVY PRECIP/SNOW CONFINED TO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

HOWEVER THIS FARTHER OFF SHOR SOLUTION IS COLDER WITH THE RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NE CT- RI AND EASTERN MA! MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE REX- BLOCK OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. NOW DESPITE DOMESTIC MODEL SIMULATIONS SAYING EXCESSIVE QPF FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PATTERN RECOGNITION AND AMPLITUDE OF BLOCK PATTERN INDICATES A RED FLAG FOR A MORE SUPPRESSED/OFSHR/COLDER SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET AND GGEM. THIS SOLUTION PLACES A SHARP QPF GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO NE MA. THUS A SOUTHEAST SHIFT OF 50-75 MILE PLACES THE HEAVY QPF GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST.

BIG BUST POTENTIAL HERE.
NO TWO EVENTS ARE IDENTICAL BUT THIS LOOKS A LOT LIKE 10 FEB 2010 SNOW BUST WHERE HIGH SNOW TOTALS WERE PREDICTED BUT THE STORM VEERED OUT TO SEA AND AMOUNTED TO BARELY A DUSTING IN MANY PLACES ALONG THE COAST. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL SOUTH NEW ENGLAND...ABOUT 36N LATITUDE. THUS HEAVIEST PERSISTANT BANDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT ECMWF AND UKMET CONFINE HEAVY PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BDL-ORH-MHT...WHICH FITS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. STAKES ARE ALWAYS HIGH WHENEVER SHARP PRECIP AXIS CROSSES THE AREA. GIVEN PATTERN RECOGNITION AND STRENGTH OF BLOCKING... WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE SUPPRESSED/COLDER UKMET/ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES ECENS. THIS FOCUSES THE HEAVY SNOW 6-12 INCHES POSSIBLY HIGHER/ THREAT OVER NE CT-RI AND EASTERN MA.

HOWEVER GIVEN MODEL SPREAD HERE REMAINS LARGE SO WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY DISMISS A WARMER AND WETTER EVENT PER GFS/NAM/GEFS AND ALSO A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK WITH HEAVY PRECIP JUST SWIPING THE COAST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND TIME RANGE HERE WE NEED TO KEEP ALL THREE POSSIBILITIES IN PLAY WITH PROBABILITIES SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE COLDER/SNOWIER SOLUTION ALONG WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW SCENARIO...TO LOWER PROBABILITIES OF A WARMER/WETTER EVENT. DEFINITELY CONCERNED REGARDING THE COLDER SOLUTION WITH HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE POPULATED I-95 CORRIDOR OF RI AND EASTERN MA. HIGHER UNCERTAINTY DOWN TOWARD CAPE COD GIVEN MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WITH ONSHORE FLOW. HEAVY WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS POSE A RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR A 4TH-5TH PERIOD WATCH. THUS STILL SOME TIME TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT THREAT/RISK AREAS. AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN SURFACE AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACK WELL SOUTH OF 40N.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA 315 PM EST
WED MAR 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND THEN PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A STRONG OCEAN STORM. THIS WILL BRING A LONG DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. COASTAL FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SOMETIME IN THE MODAY NIGHT TUESDAY TIMEFRAME

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 315 PM UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT FIRST APPEARING ON THE SOUTH COAST. PTYPE COULD BE RA OR SN INITIALLY BUT LIKELY TO BECOME MOSTLY SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY INCREASES EXCEPT FOR CAPE COD...NANTUCKET...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND BLOCK ISLAND WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY DOMINATE. WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR THE ISLANDS...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE LOW LEVEL JET TO THE ISLANDS AFT 06Z. WE BELIEVE THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE REACHED SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT ACROSS S COAST LOCATIONS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BUT THIS WOULD BE COVERED BY ANY WINTER STORM HEADLINES. ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... *** STRONG OCEAN STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
*** IMPACTS...
* POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR HEAVY WET SNOW RI AND EASTERN MA
* STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS
* MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION LIKELY
* STORM FORCE WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS OF RI/MA

OVERVIEW...
DESPITE 00Z MODEL MASS FIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL QPF AND THERMAL PARAMETERS. AS A RESULT THIS LEADS TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY REGARDING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. HENCE BIG BUST POTENTIAL. TO KEEP THIS DISCUSSION SIMPLE AND CONCISE...THIS FORECAST WILL HINGE ON TWO CRITICAL PARAMETERS...
1) HOW FAR NORTHWEST WILL COMMA HEAD/TROWAL PRECIP WRAP CYCLONICALLY AROUND MID LEVEL LOW
2) WHERE THIS HEAVY PRECIP FALLS WILL INTENSITY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. PRECIP THAT COME THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS RAISES SOME CONCERNS REGARDING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FOR UPCOMING EVENT.

MODEL PREFERENCES...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE 00Z MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT STILL LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL AND QPF FIELDS. NAM IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN ALL OTHER GUID ESPECIALLY AT 850 MB AND HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. THUS WE GAVE THE NAM THE OLE FLUSH. GFS THERMAL FIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET. HOWEVER ITS QPF IS MORE ZEALOUS AND WIDESPREAD THAN THE EC/UKMET AND SREF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT/MA AND INTO SW NH. GIVEN REASONS ABOVE INCLUDING PATTERN RECOGNITION AND HIGH AMPLITUDE REX BLOCK...FAVORING A MORE SUPPRESSED/SE SOLUTION. THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD ECMWF/SREF/HPC QPF WHICH TARGETS RI AND EASTERN MA... ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST MA AS THE THREAT AREA FOR HEAVY COMMA HEAD/TROWAL PRECIP. FOR THERMAL FIELDS WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF. UNCERTAINTY... PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...SNOW/RAIN LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS REMAIN A LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE A BALANCE BETWEEN NW EXTENT OF COMMA HEAD/TROWAL AND WHETHER DYNAMIC AND DIABATIC COOLING CAN OVERCOME WARM BOUNDARY LAYER MARINE INFLUENCED AIR. WHATS ALSO TROUBLESOME IS THAT THE EC/UKMET AND SREF HAVE A FAIRLY SHARP QPF GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH STORM TOTAL MELTED QPF AROUND 0.60 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT/MA AND THEN QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO OVER 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MA! THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT THE NW EXTENT OF THE COMMA HEAD/BANDED PRECIP WILL BE SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UNFORTUNATELY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF LESS THAN 100 MILES MAY MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE AND IN FACT THE NEW 03Z SREF HAS SHIFTED ABOUT 50 MILES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCK. THUS WE NEED KEEP OUR OPTIONS OPEN FOR A POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH HEAVY QPF JUST SWIPING SOUTHEAST MA.

STILL BIG BUST POTENTIAL WITH THIS FORECAST. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY COMBINED WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW NOT OCCURRING UNTIL EITHER VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MORE LIKELY THU WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES WITH HEADLINES AS THE WATCH WILL CONVEY THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE WATCH AREA FOR RECEIVING HEAVY SNOW IS ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA WITH LESS CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA. PRECIPITATION... AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THIS IS WHERE THE MOST UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM RESIDES. THE KEY WILL BE THE STORM TRACK /NW EXTENT OF COMMA HEAD AND MESOSCALE BANDING/ AND WHETHER OR NOT DYNAMIC AND DIABATIC COOLING IS STRONG ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE WARM BLYR. THIS COULD BE AN EVENT WHERE SNOWFALL IS MUCH GREATER ON NON PAVED SURFACES AND THE HILLY TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN RI INTO THE I495 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. HENCE THIS IS AN AREA THAT COULD OVERCOME THE BLYR WARMTH AND YIELDING HEAVY WET SNOW. IN FACT MODEL TIME SECTION FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE LESS THAN 10 UBAR/SEC OF OMEGA AT BOS AND PVD THROUGHOUT THE STORM...BUT WITH MUCH MORE LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. LESS SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH WITH THE BULK OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THIS AREA LIKELY OCCURRING THU NGT INTO FRI AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS AREA. GIVEN ALL OF THESE VARIABLES OUR SNOW PROBS BETTER CONVEY THE SNOWFALL UNCERTAINTY THAN OUR DETERMINISTIC SNOW GRAPHIC. WINDS... STRONG EASTERLY 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET SWIPES CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY THU. WINDS GUSTS AT THE SURFACE OF UP TO 50 MPH APPEARS LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY WET SNOW WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
352 PM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013

FLOOD WATCH..
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THEINTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. 

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP EAST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WET SNOW IS ANTICIPATED MIXING OVER TO RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
433 AM EDT MON APR 1 2013.

A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN MASSACHUSEoTTS AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM AND THE FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM. THIS STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW STRONG ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A RAPID FALL IN TEMPERATURES...SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING OF STANDING WATER.

[size=200]URGENT-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
FLOOD WATCH
FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FLOOD WARNING[/size]
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
1252 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013...

[size=150]THE[/size] [size=150]FLOOD WARNING[/size] [size=150]HAS BEEN EXTENDED FR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN RHODE ISLAND... [/size]
- PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON AFFECTING KENT AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES
MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE PAWTUXET RIVER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAINFALL LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES... WHICH IS FORECAST TO BRING THE PAWTUXET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING TUESDAY EVENING.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 11:45 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.5 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. THE RIVER WILL APPROACH MODERATE FLOODING TUESDAY EVENING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR 9.5 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN WILL RISE TO NEAR 11 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...STRUCTURES AND HOMES ARE IMPACTED IN LOW LYING SECTIONS OF WARWICK. AFFECTED AREAS INCLUDE HOMES AND BUSINESSES ON WELLINGTON AVENUE AND AVERY ROAD IN CRANSTON...AS WELL AS PIONEER AVE, BELLOWS ST, VENTURI AVE AND A PORTION OF RIVER STREET IN WARWICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SAFETY MESSAGE...A FLOOD STATEMENT PROVIDING THE LATEST INFORMATION IN THIS FLOOD EVENT WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 8 HOURS...OR EARLIER IF NEEDED. SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY NEAR SWOLLEN RIVERS...STREAMS OR CULVERTS. SWIFTLY MOVING WATER CAN POSE AN IMMINENT THREAT TO LIFE.

...[size=150]THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A[/size]* [size=150]FLOOD WATCH[/size] [size=150]FOR CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE...MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND RHODE ISLAND...FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.[/size]

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN RENEWED FLOODINGTONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING...

DAY ONE...TODAY...MONDAY
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE REGION AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE MASS TURNPIKE/I90...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

* SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING... BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2.5 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE BETKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THIS MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING...AS WELL AS FLOODING OF RIVERS AND STREAMS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...SOME SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE QUICKLY WITH THIS RAIN. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVER AMOUNTS...THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS  WITH POTENTIALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.
* WITH ALREADY ELEVATED LEVELS OF STREAMS AND RIVERS...MANY AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE FOR FLOODING. MAIN STEM RIVER BASINS AND PRIMARY RIVERS SUCH AS THE CHICOPEE...CONNECTICUT...DEERFIELD...HOUSATONIC...MERRIMACK...SCANTIC AND WESTFIELD RIVER WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO  FLOODING. AT THIS TIME MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. URBAN  AND OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLEFLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BEPREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WETHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
509 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013


SYNOPSIS... 
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOWER TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BACKS IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR: LITCHFIELD AND HARTFORD COUNTY CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN MAINE...CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE...MOST OF NEW YORK AND ALL OF VERMONT

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS  NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK TODAY. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD  BE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.  LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES...PARTICULARLY UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM.* HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE  FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN NORMAL SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS. FAST RESPONDING STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO SPILL OVER THEIR BANKS.SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL GROW IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET STREAM AND MOISTURE PLUME IS AIDING IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. OTHER FOCUS TURNS TO THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PA AND NJ. THIS AREA IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG AND GOOD 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MESO-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE HUDSON VALLEY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. BOTH OF THE AREAS COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT PWATS OF 2+ INCHES AND DEWPOINTS OF 70+ WILL CAUSE HEAVY DOWNPOURS . BEST REGION WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.
*** FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK.*** 

PATTERN CONTINUES TO GENERALLY REMAIN THE SAME AS CUT OFF LOW SPINS OVER THE MID-WEST AND BERMUDA HIGH IS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS PUTS THE REGION INTO A SQUEEZE PLAY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE 70S COMBINED WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.5 INCHES WILL BE A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE TROPICAL PLUME IN A MORE SW TO NE ORIENTATION ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...NANTUCKET MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE LATER TODAY IF NOT THEN TOMORROW AS DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED TOWARDS THEM. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS SETUP JUST WEST OF THE REGION AND WILL TAKE MORE OF AN NW ORIENTATION LATER TODAY THANKS TO BUILDING HIGH TO THE EAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS SAID BOUNDARY. STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT/SET UP AS THE BOUNDARY COULD BE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OR IT COULD MOVE CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDLESS FELT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NECESSARY TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS MORE CLOUDS COVER WILL LIMIT TRUE DIURNAL HEATING.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...TONIGHT...
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SET UP ACROSS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL TAKE MORE OF A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION. AM HESITANT TO JUMP ON THAT AT THIS MOMENT. REGARDLESS BELIEVE PRECIP WILL WANE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDER PROBABLY WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS HEATING IS LOST...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AS TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.TOMORROW... TUESDAYSOME UNCERTAINTY LIES FOR TOMORROW. SOME MODELS KEEP HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALSO KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION SOCKED IN CLOUDS. OTHERS ARE SHOWING THE RAIN MOVING OFF...CLOUDS COVER BREAKING AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIURNALLY DEVELOP. LEANING TOWARDS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND PWATS STILL...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO OCCUR. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THIS REGION.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. STARTS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WE WILL STILL HAVE A THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...THOUGH THIS THREAT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM EAST- WEST LATE THIS WEEK. A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE 2.0 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE...SO ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ALONG WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING GOING. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA INTO NORTHERN CT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. VERY GOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 01/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE. ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO TREND THE ONGOING FORECAST. STILL ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS SUCH AS THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. THESE ISSUES WILL RESOLVE THEMSELVES AS WE GO FORWARD IN TIME. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY CONTINUE TO NOTE CHANCE PRECIP...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR. LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOWLY LOWERING EACH DAY AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS WEST. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE. FRIDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED IN OUR VICINITY. LOWERED POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND AS MORE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED 
TORNADO WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
TAUNTON MA 
225 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS... WESTERN ESSEX COUNTY IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... NORTHEASTERN WORCESTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS... SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE... 
* UNTIL 315 PM EDT 
* AT 224 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LANCASTER...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEOMINSTER...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
 * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LOWELL...LAWRENCE...DRACUT...PELHAM...NORTH ANDOVER...METHUEN... CHELMSFORD...CARLISLE...BOLTON...STOW...ANDOVER...BERLIN... CLINTON...HUDSON...TYNGSBORO...TEWKSBURY...HARVARD...AYER... BOXBOROUGH AND LITTLETON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 
TAKE COVER NOW! DO NOT WAIT TO SEE THE TORNADO. GO TO A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN A VEHICLE...A MOBILE HOME OR OUTDOORS...GET TO THE CLOSEST SHELTER. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 426 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER 
NORMAN OK 
210 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT MASSACHUSETTS SOUTHERN MAINE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF AUGUSTA MAINE TO 40 MILES WEST OF GROTON CONNECTICUT. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 425... DISCUSSION...SVR POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS WW AREA AS INITIALLY ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOP NEAR PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH THEN MOVE EWD TO ESEWD INTO INCREASINGLY DESTABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER. DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
401 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CONNECTICUT...MAINE...MASSACHUSETTS...NEW HAMPSHIRE...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...RHODE ISLAND AND VERMONT

SYNOPSIS... 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON LABOR DAY AS STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. 

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...FIRST ACROSS AREAS IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED PONDING/FLOODING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS..

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN.
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 638 AM EDT...
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED IN SOME AREAS OF THE REGION. WITH LATE SUMMER SUN ANGLE...IT COULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING FOR THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP. WE ARE STILL IN A WARM AIR MASS...SO ONCE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DO OCCUR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY AND WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES... CURRENTLY WATCHING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHICH HAS SPAWNED CONVECTION ACROSS THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MULTIPLE SMALL-SCALE PIECES OF ENERGY MAY ARRIVE BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH...WHICH COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY AREA WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN PLACED THROUGH 6 PM IS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY T-STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY STORMS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING. NOT EXPECTING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE SPC 4KM WRF-NMM AND OUR LOCAL OFFICE HIRESWRF...ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MAIN SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH BE THERE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUESTION AS TO HOW UNSTABLE IT WILL BE BY SO LATE AT NIGHT. SO...WILL MENTION INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED...WITH AGAIN SOME DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE ELSE. ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY POSES A CHALLENGE SINCE WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. NOT ONLY WILL THERE POSSIBLY BE CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON IF THE FIRST BATCH WEAKENS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH. THIS IS UNCERTAIN THOUGH...AS THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL MENTION MAINLY CHANCE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...FIRST WITH ANY MORNING ACTIVITY...THEN WITH POSSIBLE RE-DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY BE STRONGER...DUE TO HIGHER VALUES OF SBCAPE FORECAST IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...THIS MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS DUE TO PRECIP LOADING...AND DOWNPOURS. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE...SO WILL MENTION HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND CONTINUED HUMID. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. WE WILL STILL BE LEFT WITH A MOIST AND HUMID AIR MASS...SO ADDITIONAL LINGERING SHOWERS/T-STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY...WITH MORE SUBTLE FORCING AND LIKELY TIED TO LOCAL SURFACE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES OR ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST IS STARTING TO SOUND REPETITIVE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL RAISE POPS TO 50 PERCENT...THEN TO LIKELY LEVELS MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. LATE MONDAY NIGHT HAVE DROPPED THE POPS SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL AROUND 50 PERCENT AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS DURING THE DAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE DRIER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD WITH NO PCPN FCST DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY NIGHT IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY ENOUGH. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COOLING WILL BEGIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. ONE NOTE OF CAUTION...THE ECMWF HAS A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR BEHIND IT FOR THURSDAY. IF IT WERE TO BE CORRECT...TEMPS ON THURSDAY WOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
TAUNTON MA
445 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...CREATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS EVEN IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH...AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF THE CERTAINTY FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS BECOMES GREATER...WIND ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN... MINOR POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IF DRAINS ARE LEAF CLOGGED. 

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN THERE COULD BE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING ON FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY IF DRAINS ARE LEAF CLOGGED.....HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
TAUNTON MA
441 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CONNECTICUT... MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEWHAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND..

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SOME DENSE FOGPARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH COASTAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT..

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
302 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AT MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/WESTERN NEW YORK WILL EXPAND EASTWARD LATE TODAY INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND APPROACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS...VERMONT AND CONNECTICUT AFTER 8 PM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, EASTERN CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM. THIS INCLUDESTHE I-91 CORRIDOR AND THE CITIES AND TOWNS OF BRATTLEBORO...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...CHESTERFIELD...WESTFIELD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...JAFFREY AND KEENE.

A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGINGWINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS AND HOW QUICKLY THEY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THUS STAY TUNED TO LATER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATEMENTSAND DISCUSSIONS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
500AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CONNECTICUT... MAINE...MASSACHUSETTS...NEW HAMPSHIRE...RHODE ISLAND AND VERMONT..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...ROUGHLY FROM ABOUT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2AM THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING..

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL AGAIN EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING...ALONG WITH GUSTYWINDS...GENERALLY FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON

PART 1
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
TAUNTON MA 
1033 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014 .

SYNOPSIS... 
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR TODAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PERHAPS HAVING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MARINE COMMUNITY...COASTLINE...AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 10 AM UPDATE...
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...BUT WITH A THINNING TREND. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AROUND THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING...AND WERE 1-3F WARMER THAN THE FORECAST AT MID MORNING. SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE ARE OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. PRECIP WATER VALUES CURRENTLY BELOW 1.5 INCHES BUT WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCH VALUES ACROSS PA AND LONG ISLANDS POISED TO MOVE NORTH. CAPES ARE BUILDING...AT MID MORNING THERE WAS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIN IN PLACE BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NY/PA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SB CAPES ARE CLIMBING AND SHOULD REACH NEAR 2000 J/KG IN THE INTERIOR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM OVER NEW ENGLAND AND 6.5C/KM OVER NEW YORK. SYNOPTIC FORCING VIA THE UPPER JET...THIS REMAINS FARTHER WEST OVER WESTERN NY/PA. SO NOT EVERYTHING IS IDEAL FOR CONVECTION...BUT ENOUGH IS THERE FOR SCATTERED TSTORMS TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD FARTHER EAST BY EVENING. WE CONTINUE TO INCLUDE EXTRA WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE OF MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY BOW LINES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...SO WIND EVENTS ARE FAVORED OVER HAIL EVENT. 
*NOTE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED EAST THE RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER INTO WESTERN CT WESTERN VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND HAVE AN 80% PROBABILITY OF ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE STORM WATCH FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RT 7 CORRIDOR IN WESTERN CT/MA. WE HAVE ALSO EXPANDED CHANCE POPS A LITTLE EAST OF OUR PREVIOUS MANCHESTER-WORCESTER LINE. MORNING OBSERVED 850 MB TEMPS SHOWED 18C WITH EQUIV TEMPS ELSEWHERE IN THE MIXED LAYER. THIS WOULD FAVOR MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. LATE MORNING OBSERVED TEMPS WOULD FAVOR TEMPS IN THE 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BUFFER THE HEAT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AN UNDETERMINED DISTANCE INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES INLAND SHOULD BE IN THE MID 90S.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THRU THURS
... TONIGHT...
EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING IN THE INTERIOR AND IT IS POSSIBLE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SNE DURING THE NIGHT AS GEFS MODEL ENSEMBLE INDICATE SFC INSTABILITY AXIS MOVING EAST WITH SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST. MINS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. 

THURSDAY...
 TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF ARTHUR SURGES NORTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF WELL DEFINED UPPER JET IS STILL TO THE WEST AND IT IS POSSIBLE A PRE AND ANY ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL WAIT UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI WHEN THE UPPER JET APPROACHES. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER WE HAVE AN ORGANIZED PRECEEDING HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY...VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PRECIP FORECAST NEAR 2" AND DEWPOINTS LOW/MID 70S WITH CAPES 1000-2000 J/KG SUGGEST A HIGH PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST SCT TSTMS WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. INSTABILITY EXTENDS FURTHER EAST ON THU SO TSTM THREAT WILL EXTEND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. CLOUD COVER AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
HIGHLIGHTS... 
* POTENTIAL PREDECESSOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD EVENT THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON 
* TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MAY PASS SOUTHEAST OF US FRI NIGHT-SAT 
* HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
* INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE LOST THE AGREEMENT THEY ONCE HAD ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS ARTHUR CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THAN EITHER THE NHC TRACK OR THE 01/12Z ECMWF. THE ECMWF TRACKS ARTHUR EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE NHC TRACK...INCORPORATING THESE TRACKS AS WELL AS A HOST OF OTHER MODELS ENCOMPASSES THE WHOLE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS POSSIBLE...WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK NEAREST TO THE UKMET AND CANADIAN TRACKS. THE ECMWF TRACK WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY A MARINE IMPACT WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE IMPACTS TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT IMPACTS ARTHUR WILL HAVE ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF ARTHUR...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PREDECESSOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DO NOT USUALLY HANDLE THESE EVENTS WELL AT ALL...AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION...THOUGH ALL HAVE SOME RAIN OCCURRING WITHIN THE CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. MORE INFORMATION FOLLOWS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS NEAREST PASS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF ARTHUR...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION...INCREASING PWATS TO AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES INTO FRIDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT COULD INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...RESULTING IN A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT. THESE EVENTS ARE VERY POORLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY WHEN IT COMES TO WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN SETS UP. THEREFORE...KNOWING WHETHER THE RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY. ALL OF THE ABOVE IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL DEPEND ENTIRELY ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION. 

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH QUIET...SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY

PART 2
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
ALBANY NY
1118 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

CONNECTICUTTHIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY
LITCHFIELD

MASSACHUSETTS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY
BERKSHIRE

NEW YORKTHIS WATCH INCLUDES 15 COUNTIES
ALBANY COLUMBIA              DUTCHESS
FULTON                GREENE                HAMILTON
HERKIMER              MONTGOMERY            RENSSELAER
SARATOGA              SCHENECTADY           SCHOHARIE
ULSTER                WARREN                WASHINGTON

VERMONT THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES
BENNINGTON            WINDHAM

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALBANY...AMSTERDAM...ARLINGTON...ATHENS...BEACON...BELLOWS FALLS...BENNINGTON...BRATTLEBORO...CAIRO...CAMBRIDGE...CATSKILL...COBLESKILL...COXSACKIE...DOLGEVILLE...FORT EDWARD...FRANKFORT...GLENS FALLS...GLOVERSVILLE...GRANVILLE...GREENWICH...HERKIMER...HUDSON...HUDSON FALLS...ILION...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...JOHNSTOWN...KINGSTON...LITTLE FALLS...MIDDLEBURGH...MOHAWK...NEW PALTZ...NORTH ADAMS...PITTSFIELD...POUGHKEEPSIE...ROTTERDAM...SARATOGA SPRINGS...SCHENECTADY...SPECULATOR...TORRINGTON...TROY...WELLSVILLE...WEST BRATTLEBORO...WEST GLENS FALLS AND WHITEHALL.

[size=200]PART 3[/size]
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1252   
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER 
NORMAN OK   
1128 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2014   

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NY...VT...WRN MA/CT...CENTRAL/ERN PA...NRN/CENTRAL NJ...AND NRN MD   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH ISSUED...EXPANSION LIKELY   

 VALID 021428Z - 021530Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT   

SUMMARY...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH   FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE   MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE   LIKELY...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY   BY LATE MORNING.   

DISCUSSION...
TRENDS IN MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A   SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES   REGION...AND A SECOND UPSTREAM WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH LOWER MI/NRN   IND.  AN ATTENDANT BAND OF 50-60 KT SWLY 500 MB WINDS EXTENDS FROM   THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO SRN QUEBEC PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...WITH THESE   WINDS SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE DAY AND SHIFT   SOMEWHAT EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ENHANCING BULK SHEAR.    MOSAIC RADAR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED   CU/TCU AND A FEW CB DEVELOPMENT ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH A FEW SEVERE STORM WARNINGS ALREADY ISSUED FROM WRN/CENTRAL PA   INTO CENTRAL NY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES...GIVEN ABUNDANT   SURFACE HEATING PER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE   ENVIRONMENT.     

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS ALREADY   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED.  THIS IS CONFIRMED PER   MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE TEMP/   DEWPOINT SHOWING NO INHIBITION AND MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG.  DESPITE   VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH THE AIR MASS   BECOMING STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT   ORGANIZED STORMS FAVORING LINE SEGMENTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.    TRANSIENT ROTATING STRUCTURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS EFFECTIVE   BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45 KT FROM NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER NWD INTO NY AND WESTRN NEW ENGLAND THIS   AFTERNOON.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE WARNING
TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FLOOD WATCH
FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
635 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014

WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY ON CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO MAINE.

SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN 100
MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE
WATERS FRIDAY EVENING.

* HURRICANE ARTHUR MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING.
* A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF HURRICANE ARTHUR. 
* TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 6 INCHES FROM STRONGER BANDS.
* RAINFALL RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN STRONGER BANDS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
530PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
CONNECTICUT...MAINE...MASSACHUSETTS...NEW HAMPSHIRE...NEW YORK...RHODE ISLAND AND VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A MOIST AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WILL BE PRESENT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES...RESULTING IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE POOR...BUT NEAR 30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AREAS WITH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FROM THE WESTERN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TO AREAS EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN... CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.  

STAY TUNED NOAA NWS RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.